U.S.-Israel War Costs U.S. Drivers An Extra $40,000,000,000 In Gas So Far

Currently, the average cost of a gallon of gas in the U.S. is still $4.51, while diesel costs $5.63. And yes, both of those prices are way, way higher than the were at the end of February, before Trump started his stupid war, completely bungled whatever concept of a plan he initially had, and handed control of the Strait of Hormuz over to Iran. Those higher gas prices add up fast, too, at least for those who still haven't made the EV switch. According to the Financial Times, Trump's disastrous war with Iran has already cost American drivers and extra $40 billion at the pump. 

Back in April, it was $10 billion. Now it's up to $40 billion. Or rather, it's already passed $40 billion, because that estimate comes from a report released by Brown University's Watson School of International and Public Affairs, which estimated that higher fuel costs have already cost U.S. drivers $41.5 billion. That works out to $316 per household, which isn't exactly an entire mortgage payment, but remember, these are also averages. Financially comfortable, child-free folks with stable work-from-home jobs in states where gas is still cheap get counted in that average, right along with the single mom in California with a long commute and two kids who constantly need transportation to various activities.  

As Brown political science professor Jeff Colgan told the Financial Times, "We are spending this huge amount of money as a country on extra fuel costs, which we could have used in a whole bunch of more constructive ways to improve America's transportation infrastructure — which, frankly, could use the love." As important as infrastructure is, I'd argue most of us have other more pressing uses for that money, like your child's birthday party, replacing the worn-out tires on your car, or figuring out how to get my hands on sold-out Mountain Goats tickets before they play the 40 Watt in Athens at the end of the month.

If you're old enough to remember all the way back to 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and temporarily drove fuel prices through the roof, gas got even more expensive than it is today. Then, Biden and the rest of the world figured it out, gas prices started dropping, and while we never saw a return to the sub-$1 gas prices I remember when I was younger, after a couple of months, everything pretty much went back to normal. So, clearly, this is pretty much the same thing, and it might suck right now, but it'll be fine, right?

As much as I admire the optimism, that's just not the case. Not this time. Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz, and as long as that's the case, gas is going to stay expensive. Even beyond that, though, the war has already damaged or destroyed a significant percentage of oil and gas infrastructure, and even if everyone involved with these negotiations magically became best friends and then agreed to stop all the senseless killing, it will still take time to repair the now-destroyed infrastructure. Which means gas prices will stay high long after this stupid war ends.

How long, though? Long enough that you might need to go ahead and accept that your next car will be electric. According to our friend Patrick the Gas Buddy Guy, the experts he's talked to agree that every day Iran controls the strait, it'll take about a week for global oil inventories to recover. So, at 78 days, that's 78 weeks, and if I can still do math, that's pretty darn close to a year and a half. Open the strait today, make sure nothing goes wrong, and things might finally start to feel normal-ish just in time to ring in 2028. 

Of course, that's also assuming everyone in the negotiating room magically becomes best friends and agrees to stop killing people today. Which is a fun hypothetical but not remotely guaranteed, likely, or really even plausible. With that in mind, it's probably best to accept that gas won't be getting cheaper any time soon, we're in this for the long haul.