Here's How Expensive Gas Would Have To Get Before Our Readers Would Buy An EV

Over the last month, gas prices have skyrocketed, and coincidentally, used EV sales were up in Q1. We actually won't know what kind of effect Trump's senseless war in Iran has had on EV sales until we see the Q2 numbers, and lower prices on used EVs may have boosted those numbers anyway, but still, it's nice to see. Trump also appears to have completely bungled the ceasefire announcement, since the firing hasn't actually ceased, and Iran's re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, forcing us to face the possibility that gas prices will only continue to climb. 

With all of that in mind, last Thursday, we asked you how expensive gas would have to get before you went electric. Of course, fuel prices aren't the only reason people buy EVs, but it felt like a good starting point for an interesting discussion. Did we get many answers that named a specific price? Nope, but that's ok. It wasn't a total surprise, and many of the comments we did get were still pretty interesting. Let's take a look at some of the most popular answers.

We leased an EV two years ago and it was transformative for us in many ways. When it came time to turn in the lease, we bought another EV to replace it (residual value/resale value was way too far off on our lease to buy it out). I did some math when we first bought the car and calculated that gasoline would have to be nearly under $1/g for it to be cheaper to drive an ICE vehicle before you even figure in the lower maintenance costs that come with it. If you can charge at home, the economics have made sense for a while.

Suggested by: Eric Janney

and

As an EV owner I wont be going back to gas no matter what the gas prices are. The ev is simply better to drive, better in every way. Quieter, faster, way smoother, no gas smell, no warm up, instant heater, and no pumping gas. And much cheaper.

Suggested by: Gabriel S

For me, it's not the price of gasoline that would make me buy an EV. I'm really looking at getting a Slate pickup in a few years.

Not because it's an EV, but because it's a small, simple regular-cab pickup and nobody makes them anymore. Since 1991 I've driven regular cab, base model, manual transmission pickups.

Suggested by: Anonymous Person

and

I am currently driving a 2 gas vehicles but they are getting old and I will replace them with an electric and hybrid car. Possibly only one electric. The price of gas will be irrelevant.

Suggested by: RWP

I literally had a perfect storm develop. A new job with a lot more local driving, a GF that lives 2 hours away, freshly-installed solar panels, a ridiculous trade-in value on my old (paid for) Colorado, and an unreal deal on a Mach-E. With 72 months at 0% and no money down on the car (stickered at $60k) my monthly payment is less than what I was spending on gas every month, and that was when gas was under $3/gallon. It was strictly an economic decision, with a very quick and noticeable ROI.

There's not a similar case to be made with rising fuel prices now. As gas prices rise, the trade-in value of a vehicle that gets under 20mpg and/or uses premium fuel drops pretty quickly. Used EVs are cheap right now, and there are screaming deals to be had on new ones, but the current situation has only been going on for 6 weeks. Gas is only $4/gallon. in another 6 months if gas is over $5/gallon, AND you can get out from under your trade (because eventually dealers won't just lowball gas guzzlers, they'll start refusing to take them in trade), AND you can charge at home, then maybe a case can be made to switch.

Suggested by: 05Train

I've had several rental EVs ranging from a Bolt to a Polestar (so far my favorite) to a couple of Teslas and I've come away impressed, but did have range anxiety a few times when I couldn't find a working or available charger. I own a condo with covered parking but no charger availability, nor outlets or available space to have a charger installed. No chargers at work as well. The only chargers available are two at the end of my street where it turns onto a busy street and since the chargers are in a public parking lot, they are frequently in use. So that can get tough if people don't move their charged EVs in time.

So, gas could hit $10/gal and I'd still have to at least use some form of an ICE powertrain. Probably a plug-in hybrid where I can get some EV mode out of it when I'm near a charger. But for my sanity, and there was once where I was almost stuck on I-71 due to my EV battery range plunging severely and quickly, I can't rely on just a pure EV just yet. But I can make my driving more efficient and try to work from home more (HA!)

Suggested by: Xavier96

At free gas, I'm in for the EV. Never having to visit a greasy gas station or go for regular service is worth whatever it costs. Own 2 EV's, the first one at 3 years now, and have never visited a charging station with either one. Fortunately, able to charge at home and wouldn't dream of taking a "road trip"...which just sounds like an unpleasant activity involving stops at horrific gas stations or desolate charging stations

Suggested by: Not4one

I want an EV because I only drive a handful of miles everyday to get my kids to and from school. Driving around in my SHO is just brutal at this point because if the turbos spool up then it just starts chugging fuel.

I drive so little these days that I could keep it topped off by plugging it in at home. But it seems that dealers are seeing the possible demand for EVs and in my area the prices have gone up on CPO EVs by 30-50%.

Suggested by: Flashpoint Zero

No one who's good at math should even remotely consider changing out their vehicles with our current gas pricing. With 12,000 miles per year at 25 MPGs, the extra $1 per gallon we're paying amounts to $480 annually. Even if gas doubled to $8 per gallon, we're talking under $2,500.

I would suspect we would need fuel coasts to triple or quadruple before people would take depreciation hits to buy high MPGs, assuming this would be a permanent increase and not a temporary spike.

What's interesting is has even with the current average at $4.12 per gallon or so, the U.S. still has amongst the cheapest gasoline in the developed world, aside side from select oil producing nations like Venezuela, Iran, Libya, Kuwait, etc.

In Western Europe, $9-10 dollars per gallon has been the norm for years. We could look to those countries and project what we would all eventually be driving if fuel costs doubled permanently.

Demand for casual use full size pick-ups and SUVs would shrink to nothing, along with anything else associated with the bigger is better perpetual dick measuring contest we seem so fond of. We'd be better off for it.

Suggested by: Factoryhack

I drive a 1971 Chevy C10 pickup. It has no computers, no injectors, no oxygen sensors....and It doesnt need gasoline.

It merely needs a flammable liquid that can be ignited by a spark once atomized. This is key; it will burn a huge variety of fuels other than gasoline quite readily.

All I have to do to divorce it from gasoline is drill out the carb's main jet and pour alcohol in the tank instead of gasoline. 🤷

Suggested by: TestE Cull

Honestly? It'd have to be really, really high. I drive about 4,000 miles per year, and ride my ebike about 4,000 miles per year as well. Since my Outback gets about 25mpg, I really only use 160 gallons of gas every year. If gas goes up by $1/gallon, that's only $160 per year more that I'd be spending. If gas went up by $2/gallon, that's still only an extra $320, or less than $30/month. Hell, if gas went up to $10/gallon I'd still only be spending a total of $160/month on it. And the issue is that EVs are still stupidly expensive since there aren't many used ones, and so the idea of a $400 car payment just to avoid paying $160 on the vehicle that I have would be the definition of stupidity.

Suggested by: Dante

I'm an engineer. I have the Technology (Excel).

In my case, I have two vehicles.

Vehicle 1.

Current is a Paid off 2007 Sienna with 300k miles. The gas cost would have to be over $16/gallon to make the payments plus electricity be less than the gas plus routine maintenance on the Sienna, if I assume an ID.Buzz

Vehicle 2

Current is a Paid off 2004 Camry with 240k miles. The break even point for this is $7/gallon assuming a used Chevy Bolt.

However there are two curveballs.

If gas prices really went to $7/gallon, I expect the demand on EVs would go up and drive the price higher dramatically.

Both vehicles are old and have a lot of miles, the math changes if we are talking a replacement.

For the Van, I would replace it with a new van (I can hear my budget screaming from here). The price difference on an ID. Buzz after incentives over a Honda Odyssey is low enough that gas prices would be only $3.55 to justify the Buzz.

For the car, EVs are a slam dunk. I would get used and the price for a used EV is lower than an equivalent mile/year ICE vehicle.

Suggested by: hoser 68