Carvana's Comeback Is One For The Ages As Value Surpasses Ford And GM

Good morning! It's Tuesday, December 9, 2025, and this is The Morning Shift, your daily roundup of the top automotive headlines from around the world, in one place. This is where you'll find the most important stories that are shaping the way Americans drive and get around.

In this morning's edition, Carvana's miraculous comeback continues as it gets ready to enter the S&P 500, Ford is partnering with Renault to build small EVs in Europe, BMW is getting a new CEO for the first time in seven years and Waymo recalled its self-driving vehicles after a few too many close calls with school busses.

Carvana's comeback has to be up there with Tom Brady's performance in Super Bowl LI, the Chicago Cubs in the 2016 World Series and Tiger Woods winning the Masters in 2019. Just three years ago, the online used-vehicle retailer and its massive car vending machines was as good as dead. Now, it's getting ready to make its debut on the S&P 500. Back in 2022, there were fears that Carvana was going to default on its debt and possibly enter bankruptcy, but as new cars became more unaffordable to the average American, they started flocking to the used car seller. 

Since its stock hit a record low in 2022, it has surged over 8,000% as the company touted tighter cost controls, debt reduction and a rebound in demand that brought it into profitability. Now, Carvana's market value is about $97 billion — putting it ahead of actual automakers like Ford at $52 billion and General Motors at $71 billion. It's wild to see. From Reuters:

Carvana sold a record 155,941 retail units in the third quarter, while total revenue surged 55% to $5.65 billion from a year earlier, the company reported in October.

The company could overtake bigger rival CarMax in quarterly used-car sales volumes by the fourth quarter of 2026, an analyst said in November.

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Carvana's stock trades at 57.4 times forward earnings, far above the single-digit multiples of its Detroit rivals.

"It's a long-term 'buy' and I'd use any pullbacks to add for the long-term secular growth story and market share expansion," said Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors.

I suppose it remains to be seen if this sort of growth is sustainable for Carvana. However, I kind of doubt new cars are going to be getting cheaper anytime soon, so I wouldn't really expect Carvana to lose out on a steady flow of buyers looking for cheaper alternatives. That being said, the entire economy could go belly up tomorrow, and then it might be in a bit of trouble if nobody can even afford used cars. Time will tell.

Ford may have killed the Fiesta, but it's already getting back into the business of making small cars... sort of. You see, the Blue Oval is partnering up with Renault to sell small electric vehicles in Europe. It's a deal that will "significantly" improve the competitiveness for both companies in Europe, the pair said in a statement.

The collaboration, which is crucially not a joint venture, will involve the two companies developing two distinct Ford-branded EVs. (Read: put Ford badges on Renault products) They've also signed a Letter of Intent for a European light commercial truck collaboration. It means they will "explore opportunities to jointly develop and manufacture" certain Ford and Renault light commercial vehicles, according to Ford's statement. From the Detroit Free Press:

The two new EVs will be based on the Ampere platform — that's Renault's EV arm dedicated to designing advanced and affordable EVs. For Ford, the partnership means leveraging Renault's EV assets and competitiveness. The vehicles will be made by Renault Group in the north of France using Ampere's ElectriCity's "state-of-the-art" manufacturing expertise.

For Renault, the two vehicles, which are expected to come to market in early 2028, will be designed by Ford. The EVs will feature "distinctive driving dynamics, authentic Ford-brand DNA and intuitive experiences" and mark the first step in a new product offensive for Ford in Europe.

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[Ford CEO Jim] Farley added that the partnership is an important step for Ford and supports "our strategy to build a highly efficient and fit-for-the future business in Europe. We will combine Renault Group's industrial scale and EV assets with Ford's iconic design and driving dynamics to create vehicles that are fun, capable and distinctly Ford in spirit."

Ford and Renault leaders say that by joining forces in innovation, design, software and service delivery, will help them to address industry challenges and better serve retail and commercial customers.

This is far from the only partnership Ford has in Europe. One of them is Ford Otosan, a joint venture with Koç Holding, a Turkish investment company. It helps support Ford's commercial vehicle business in Europe. Additionally, in 2020, Ford and Volkswagen agreed to develop commercial and passenger vehicles for the global market.

It's not immediately clear how Ford these EVs will really be. Sure, the automaker says they'll have distinct Ford driving dynamics, DNA and whatever, but they'll be using all of Renault's running gear. In any case, I suppose more choice is never a bad thing. We shall see.

BMW has a new CEO: production head Milan Nedeljkovic, and he's set to take over for Oliver Zipse come May 2026. Nedeljkovic is described as a "company lifer" by Bloomberg, and he has worked to move the German automaker through its electrification goals. From Bloomberg:

Nedeljkovic, 56, will succeed Oliver Zipse, 61 when the CEO steps down in May, the company said Tuesday. Nedeljkovic has overseen BMW's manufacturing network through the shift to electric models, including as plant head for the i3 city car that debuted in 2013, retooling factories so they can build multiple drivetrains on the same line.

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The appointment is part of a broader changing of the guard across Europe's auto industry, with rivals such as Stellantis, Renault, Volvo Car and Porsche all naming new CEOs in recent months. While some automaking peers swapped out their top executives to tackle cratering sales and rightsize overly ambitious EV rollouts, BMW has defied critics and stuck to a flexible approach on making combustion-engine and battery vehicles.

Attractive models have also helped the automaker establish a lead over Mercedes-Benz Group AG in electric-vehicle sales and navigate slower than expected demand for battery cars. Even so, the company faces significant headwinds, from eroding market share in China to the fallout from US President Donald Trump's new tariffs, which threaten a production network built around minimal trade friction.

The promotion of Nedeljkovic — who was born in the former Yugoslavia and has worked closely with Zipse — signals a smooth and orderly succession at BMW. Central to his mandate, which is set to run through 2031, will be the rollout of the Neue Klasse suite of vehicles, BMW's biggest investment in its history. Orders for the first model, the electric iX3, have been exceeding expectations.

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Rising steadily through BMW's manufacturing ranks, he took on roles in body-shop planning, press operations and later paint and assembly management at key sites including Oxford, Regensburg and Leipzig. His reputation as a production specialist grew as he ran increasingly complex plants, culminating in his appointment as head of BMW's flagship Munich factory — the company's historic home — where he oversaw one of the industry's most intricate mixed-drivetrain production operations.

Nedeljkovic certainly has the engineering credentials. He studied mechanical engineering at Germany's highly touted RWTH Aachen as well as MIT in Cambridge before getting his doctorate in engineering at Munich's Technical University. I'm going to hazard a guess that he's no dummy.

Once he takes over for Zipse next year, he's certainly going to have his work cut out for him. I cannot think of many times in automotive history where there have been more question marks about what customers want and what world governments want automakers to see.

Waymo is issuing a voluntary software recall for its fleet of autonomous vehicles following multiple instances of its self-driving Jaguars passing parked school buses in Texas. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of driver safety knows that is a big no-no. For the time being, Waymo will continue to operate, and all vehicles that have received the software update will be monitored for additional updates as necessary. 

District officials say there have been at least 19 separate incidents of Waymos passing stopped school buses since the school year began in August. Yikes. Luckily, no injuries have been reported. From ABC News:

"While we are incredibly proud of our strong safety record showing Waymo experiences twelve times fewer injury crashes involving pedestrians than human drivers, holding the highest safety standards means recognizing when our behavior should be better," Waymo's Chief Safety Officer Mauricio Peña said in a statement.

"As a result, we have made the decision to file a voluntary software recall with NHTSA related to appropriately slowing and stopping in these scenarios," Peña continued. "We will continue analyzing our vehicles' performance and making necessary fixes as part of our commitment to continuous improvement."

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The NHTSA said in an Oct. 17 report that it was investigating "the performance of the Waymo ADS around stopped school buses, how the system is designed to comply with school bus traffic safety laws, and the system's ability to follow those traffic safety laws."

In a letter to Waymo dated Dec. 3, the NHTSA requested responses to a number of questions regarding the school bus incidents by Jan. 20, 2026.

Last week, Vishay Nihalani, Waymo director of product management told ABC News' Jaclyn Lee that the company had "analyzed the situation and implemented fixes so that such situations are much less likely to occur in the future."

The decision came after some of the robotaxis were seen passing parked school buses. Some of them were recorded by cameras mounted on the school buses from the Austin Independent School District. This, as you may have imagined, prompted an investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

History.com

You'll always be the people's princess, Diana. I will never forgive that assclown Chunk for what he did... or what the Queen did for that matter. In any case, head over to History.com to learn more.

My holiday celebration continues with my favorite band, The 1975. Admittedly, "Wintering" isn't the most overtly Christmas-y song, but it's about the holiday season and family, so that's enough for me.