Don't Expect A U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal Any Time Soon

Happy Friday! It's October 16, 2026, and this is The Morning Shift — your daily roundup of the top automotive headlines from around the world, in one place. This is where you'll find the most important stories that are shaping the way Americans drive and get around.

In this morning's edition we're looking at trade talks between the U.S. and Mexico, as well as salespeople getting out of the dealership game. We'll also look at U.S. plans to buy oil from shadowy sources, and Toyota's continued Canadian production. 

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The United States has been trying to work out a trade deal with Mexico, the nation that produces many of our so-called "Detroit Three" cars. The deal is based around lowering tariffs on cars and metals, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has apparently decided he doesn't want to do that, actually. The deal is accordingly stalled. From Reuters: 

Oct 15 (Reuters) – Progress toward a US-Mexico tariff deal has stalled after opposition ​from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the Wall ‌Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the talks.

The US and Mexico had been ​closing in on a deal that ​would reduce US levies on steel, aluminum ⁠and automobiles in return for concessions from ​Mexico, but progress has slowed due to disagreements ​over the American levies on vehicles and metals, the report said.

Lutnick has opposed significant reductions in the ​25% tariff on Mexican automobiles and the ​50% levies on steel and aluminum, and he objected ‌to ⁠reductions in tariffs on finished products made of steel and aluminum, the Journal added.

Man, I wish I had a job where I could just reverse my decisions at the 11th hour, torpedo my own projects, and still get paid. What does Lutnick make as Commerce Secretary? Google tells me that's a quarter-million-dollar gig. I'll do just as bad a job for half the money. 

Dealership sales has always been a high-turnover industry, but that turnover rate is skyrocketing. A new review of Canadian dealerships showed more and more folks are leaving the industry, and the folks who work for commissions are first out the door. From Automotive News: 

Turnover at Canadian auto dealerships rose sharply in 2025, led by sales consultants whose annualized turnover rate jumped 21 percentage points to 54 per cent, according to the Canadian Automobile Dealers Association's (CADA) 2026 National Workforce Study.

Overall annualized turnover across dealership positions climbed five points to 36 per cent in 2025, erasing the four-point decline recorded in 2023 and pushing turnover above the pre-2023 level, the study said.

The findings, based on payroll data from a record 629 participating dealerships, point to a workforce being reshaped by changing vehicle-market economics, a generational shift and growing pressure on dealership compensation, the study said.

Automotive News credits the end of pandemic-era car sales for the shift, where dealers can no longer find buyers for any car at any price point — the chip shortages are long over. But the chip shortages have been over; what's new is that cars are rising in price as wages fall. There are simply fewer viable buyers out there for the average new car. 

Have you heard about this "oil" thing? Apparently we need a bunch of it, and it's all tied up in the Strait of Hormuz — a strait we shut down for totally normal and intelligible reasons, and also a strait through which oil is 100% flowing thanks to our blockade. Don't think about it too hard. Anyway, now we're looking at lifting restrictions on oil that comes via black-market tankers, as a sign of how well things are going. From Reuters: 

HOUSTON, Oct 15 (Reuters) – Brent crude was little changed on Thursday as investors weighed possible US ​steps to ease restrictions on the world's "shadow fleet" of tankers, while conflict in the Middle East kept ‌a geopolitical risk premium in the market.

...

The shadow fleet discussions are happening days after ​President Donald Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian diesel fuel to ease a surge in prices globally. The new ​talks centre on Washington potentially allowing "legal oil" to flow on previously sanctioned vessels, a US official said.

The ⁠Department of Energy said any move to relieve sanctions on the shadow fleet would not help Russia move oil or oil ​products. The Treasury Department referred questions to the Department of Energy.

The obvious question is whether this will mean the U.S. will start buying oil from Russia, which the Trump Administration says isn't on the table. Also, we're doing that too, but it's fine and totally separate from this. Don't think about it too hard. 

Right now, U.S. tariffs have automakers reconsidering their global product plans. Some production is being shifted to the States, while other models simply aren't coming here at all. But as automaker after automaker signals its plans to ease production in tariff-afflicted Canada, Toyota is plowing ahead with its factories in Ontario. From Bloomberg:

Toyota Motor Corp.'s latest compact crossover will roll out of a plant in Ontario starting in December, a sign of the Japanese automaker's commitment to making cars in Canada at a time when US rivals are shrinking production in the country and newly arrived Chinese competitors are ramping up sales.

The updated, hybrid-only Lexus NX is one of three models made at Toyota's 38-year—old factory complex in Cambridge, Ontario, along with the Toyota RAV4 crossover and Lexus RX SUV. While some of those are sold locally, about 85% are earmarked for export — mostly to the much larger and more lucrative US market.

Everything old is new again. Lexus was born from U.S. tariffs, which made cheaper Japanese cars unprofitable to sell in the States and ushered in the era of luxury marques. Now, it's once again Lexus cars eating tariffs. 

Has any Dude ever Rocked so hard as John Brown?

Gas prices are, say it with me kids, stable! We're in real Nothing Ever Happens territory once again, now that things have happened and created a new status quo. 

I had King Gizz playing last night to keep the pace up while writing up the very dumb Tesla Roadster re-reveal event. Thank you for preserving some small amount of sanity within me, King Gizz.